THIS TIME?

Accidents happen, in boxing as in life. The Vernon Forrest camp believes it was just an accident last January when Ricardo Mayorga landed that big right hand to become the new welterweight champion. Forrest simply fought the wrong fight, is the way the reasoning goes. Instead of using his height, reach and superior boxing skills he got drawn into slugging with the slugger. So, logically, Forrest, as long as he sticks to being a smart boxer, should do just fine in the rematch scheduled for 

The Orleans casino hotel in Las Vegas, on 12 July, with television coverage on the Home Box Office network in America. As always, though, the other man will have something to say about what happens, and Mayorga is talking a great fight. As he always does, in fact. Big talkers, in my experience, usually lose. But not always. Mayorga has a way of living up to his words. Mayorga had plenty of provocative things to say before the first fight with Forrest, just as he did prior to his rematch with Andrew "Six Heads" Lewis. He blasted Lewis in the fifth round to win the first of his two welterweight titles, that of the World Boxing Association, when Mayorga was the underdog. 

Mayorga was an even bigger underdog for the fight with the undefeated Forrest, who was defending the World Boxing Council title. Once again, Mayorga lived up to his boasts. Now the trash-talking Nicaraguan who trains at promoter Don King's gym at Fort Pierce, Florida, has exceeded himself by predicting a two-round knockout. The thing about Mayorga, though, is that the disdain he professes to feel for his opponents is real. He does not care about reputations or supposedly superior skills. "I'm a little crazy," he said at the Las Vegas press conference to announce the fight. "Really, I guess I'm a lot crazy." And it is the craziness that makes Mayorga so dangerous. 

He wades in and wings his punches from all directions, and it seems that every punch he throws has full-force power behind it. Mayorga likes to smoke cigarettes and drink beer, which adds to his devil-may-care image. But the Florida trainer, Al Bonnani, who has worked with Mayorga and knows him well, said over the phone: "He weans himself off the beer and cigarettes when he starts training, and he trains very hard. He's the fastest runner out of all the guys in training camp." 

So Mayorga will be in condition to fight 12 rounds if he has to do so. The big question is, can Forrest keep him at bay for 12 rounds? Forrest's trainer, the former light-welter contender Ronnie Shields, believes he can. Speaking from training camp at Vero Beach, Florida-about 11 miles from Mayorga's training base-Shields said: "Without a doubt, Vernon's going to win this fight. 

I see him boxing, just the way he was supposed to do last time. Not staying in front of the guy and not trading punches with him. "He got caught up in the hype, but that happens now and then, especially to a champion when everybody knows he's supposed to win. He started fighting this guy's fight instead of using his jab, and everyone knows Vernon has a great jab. He just didn't use it. 

He walked out and started throwing punches with this guy and just got caught. "You can't take anything away from Mayorga. He's a good, strong puncher. But skill-wise, forget about it. He just goes in and bombs away. Vernon has to select his punches, step around this guy-you don't want to be too far away from this guy, but you don't want to fight this guy at his own distance. Vernon has to fight at his distance, not the other guy's distance. 

"But the first thing Vernon has to do is be smart, know this guy is going to put on the pressure but let this guy run into jabs. He didn't do that last time. He didn't give himself the opportunity to get the jab working. "Our plan was to box this guy, not stand there and wing with him. There was none of that in the gym. But when he got dropped, he panicked and tried to make that right up. I told him: "Don't worry. You've got 11 rounds to make this up, you're two points down.' "Like I tell him in the gym every day: "I don't care if you knock him out or win by decision, as long as you stick to the game plan.' 

If a knockout comes, fine, of course we'll be ecstatic about that, but I tell him if he wins a decision, that's OK, as long as he does what he does best-and that's boxing." However, sticking to his boxing will not be the easiest thing in the world against a full-frontal slugger such as Mayorga, who will be planning to put on so much pressure that Forrest will simply have to trade punches to avoid being overpowered. And while Mayorga lacks the finesse of the taller, rangier Forrest, I noticed in the first fight that the Nicaraguan does have the ability to duck under punches. 

He does not get caught with everything. And Mayorga seems to have an outstanding chin. Al Bonnani noted: "Forrest hit him with a perfect uppercut, one of the most beautiful uppercuts I've ever seen, and Mayorga hardly blinked." But if Forrest can get his jab to work, make Mayorga miss, counter him and simply keep hitting him, we could see the Nicaraguan start to slow down. Forrest, though, will be under mental as well as physical pressure, knowing he is in with a man who scrambled him with one punch last time. 

It is important for the former champ from Augusta, Georgia, that he gets through the first few rounds without getting hit by a big punch. I agree with Ronnie Shields that in the last fight Forrest tried too hard to hurt Mayorga after getting dropped-somewhat controversially-in the opening round, when it seemed he was off-balance rather than having been hit squarely. But there was no doubt he got hit in the third when a right hand sent him sliding down the ropes, referee Marty Denkin waving the fight off when a dazed-looking Forrest got to his feet. But Forrest was throwing haymakers in the third and gave Mayorga a chance to land a bomb.

If Forrest doesn't get caught like that again, the fight should be his. The better-schooled boxer usually wins the boxer-slugger type of fight. Forrest, 32, definitely is the superior fighter technically. He had a long amateur career, including boxing in the Olympics. As a professional Forrest had won 35 in a row, 26 by KO, before meeting Mayorga. The two wins over Shane Mosley, especially the dominant performance in the first fight, seemed to have established Forrest as one of the elite boxers. 

But then he forgot to duck against Mayorga. Power and strength can overcome skill, though, and not just in one out of two meetings. The somewhat crude Iran Barkley knocked out the more accomplished Thomas Hearns in the third round, then pounded out a gruelling win on points in the rematch. It could be that there are elements of Barkley-Hearns in this fight, what with Mayorga's Barkley-like physical style and mental toughness and Forrest's Hearns-type build. 

The 29-year-old Mayorga, as was the case with Barkley, has come up the hard way. Mayorga didn't look anything special early in his career, boxing in Nicaragua and his second homeland of Costa Rica, when he lost three of his first 11 fights. But he was always a puncher and it seems all he lacked was experience. Mayorga hasn't lost in almost five years. 

He has never lacked self-belief but his confidence is now sky high. And even if Mayorga is being outboxed, his punch means he can't be counted out until a fight is over. Mayorga has stopped 22 opponents in 24 wins (three losses, a technical draw and a no contest), making him one of the best punchers in boxing. But Mayorga hasn't been in a long fight for some time. His last six fights have all ended inside five rounds. 

If Forrest can avoid early problems and get into the groove with stiff jabbing, it would seem highly likely that he can take command of the fight by the middle rounds. I expect Forrest to box his way to victory, using the jab and perhaps doing more clinching than last time. Mayorga will be dangerous and might even stagger Forrest a couple of times, but this time I see Forrest keeping his head and surviving the moments of crisis. I don't think lightning will strike twice. There is another outstanding match on this show, and one that seethes with mutual animosity, 

when Zab Judah challenges DeMarcus "Chop Chop" Corley for the World Boxing Organisation light-welter title. Judah and Corley got into an altercation in Philadelphia in March, when both attended the Bernard Hopkins-Morrade Hakkar show. Judah landed a punch before the two were separated. Now the two southpaws do it in the ring. Judah is getting a bit of a reputation for impulsive acts, having been fined and suspended in Nevada for his post-fight tantrums after being stopped by Kostya Tszyu. 

This will be only Judah's second fight after being stopped in the second round by Tszyu in November 2001. He outpointed Argentina's Omar Weis last July after dropping his durable opponent with a left. The flashy New Yorker was in a contract dispute with the New Jersey promotional firm, Main Events. But promoter Don King bought Judah's contract. As King parted with money, it would seem that he expects Judah to beat Corley. 

But Judah has made Corley angry and it could come back to haunt him when they get in the ring. Talking about the incident in Philadelphia, Corley, 29, said over the phone from Washington, DC, that Judah threw an unprovoked blow. "I asked him when he wanted to sign the contract," Corley said, "and he took it to another level and said: "We don't need no contract. We can fight right now.' Then he threw a punch. It didn't hurt me at all because the guy can't punch. It was just a sneak shot that he got in." Corley sees the night of 12 July as payback time. 

"I see the fight going three to four rounds before he gets knocked out," he said. "I have no remorse for what I'm gonna do to him. "He took it to another level besides us just being associates inside the ring-he took it to where he wanted to take it to the streets, and that's not where it's supposed to be at. You're supposed to handle whatever you're supposed to handle inside the ring and leave it at that. "I hope he brings his heart and attitude to the fight. Don't leave that in New York. 

If he brings his heart and attitude, then I know he's going to come straight forward and we're gonna fight. That will make my night short and quick. If he brings his scaredness to the fight then he's gonna be running and I'm gonna have to cut the ring off. But I'll catch him eventually." Corley doesn't believe Judah is a great puncher, saying: "Anybody can punch if you hit a person right. You just land that punch at the right time and they say you're a puncher. Zab Judah is not a puncher for real. He never sets down on any real shots. But if he catches you with a quick shot, he can hurt you. But he doesn't have a one-punch knockout." 

And Judah's chin? "From the looks of it, when Tszyu hit him he pretty much cracked something," Corley said. "As you can see from his fight with Omar Weis, he was gun shy. I hope he's not gun shy getting in there with me, because that will mean he's scared of getting hit. I don't want to fight guys that are scared to get hit, I want to fight guys that love to get hit-that makes my night easy. "But I'm definitely gonna nail him. I'm going to nail him to the canvas. I'm gonna be the hammer and he's the nail. Don't blink. Don't get up and go the bathroom, because you're gonna miss something. And if someone misses the first three or four rounds, they're gonna miss the fight." That's explosive talk, but although he looked spectacular in a one-round win over the Puerto Rican, Felix Flores, to win the WBO belt, Corley is more of a slick boxer than a puncher. His two WBO title defences both went the distance, unanimous decision wins over Colombian Ener Julio and hard-hitting Randall Bailey respectively. 

Corley (28 wins, one loss, one draw with 16 KOs) is talented and perhaps underrated, but the 25-year-old Judah (28 wins, one loss, 21 KOs) is the more colourful, more high-profile, fighter. And, despite what Corley says, Judah is the puncher in the fight. But Judah's chin has to be considered at least questionable. When he won and then defended the IBF title he was on the floor, against South African Jan Bergman and former champ Terronn Millett, before coming back to win, each time in the fourth round. And when Tszyu hit him with a right hand he had Judah's legs doing crazy things. But the fight with Omar Weis got Judah back on track with a win. 

He wasn't at his best that night, though, and the year's layoff cannot have helped him. But when Judah is in full flow he is a formidable fighter. He definitely shook up Tszyu in the opening round and for a while it looked as if the early night would be in the New Yorker's favour. If Judah beats Corley he will be right back in business as a red-hot attraction in the talent-loaded 10st (140lbs) weight class. Don King, it seems, believes this is exactly what will happen, because he doesn't throw money away on losers. 

But everything's a gamble. Perhaps Corley, a sound and well-schooled fighter, fuelled by a cold rage, will have what it takes to overcome the speed, power and flair of Judah. This is not the easiest fight to predict, but I have a feeling that Corley will upset the odds, that he will prevail with sound technique over the bigger punching, faster but possibly flawed Judah.